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Emerging market stock returns have been characterized as having higher volatility than returns in the more developed markets. But previous studies give little attention to the fundamentals driving the reported levels of volatility. This paper investigates whether dynamics in key macroeconomic indicators like exchange rates, interest rates, industrial production and money supply in four Latin American countries significantly explain market returns. The MSCI world index and the U.S. 3-month T-bill yield are also included to proxy the effects of global variables. Using a six-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the study finds that the global factors are consistently significant in explaining returns in all the markets. The country variables are found to impact the markets at varying significance and magnitudes. These findings may have important implications for decision-making by investors and national policymakers. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, there is widespread interest in understanding how derivative use drives bank lending behavior. Our paper examines the impact of bank ownership structure on the relationship between derivative use and lending activities of U.S. banks. We find that lending recovered faster in larger banks than smaller banks post-crisis and in line with Diamond’s (Diamond DW 1984 Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. Rev Econ Stud 51:393–414) systemic risk reduction theory, derivative use is positively associated with lending growth. Ownership is significant in explaining the magnitude of the relationship even after controlling for alternative specifications of the derivative use variable. In both normal and crisis periods, the speed of adjustment of lending to derivatives use by stock banks lags that of mutual banks. We suggest that speculative trading in derivatives substitutes for lending growth to a larger extent for stock banks compared to mutual banks. These findings may have important implications for investors and bank regulators. © 2020, Academy of Economics and Finance.
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Currency substitution represents a shift from domestic currency to foreign currency and is often related to times of high and variable inflation. In this paper, we investigate the extent of currency substitution in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico using a vector error correction (VEC) model. We empirically test this hypothesis by introducing artificial shocks to the system of equations and find that M1 response to a one standard deviation increase in that country's interest rate is negative and significant for Argentina and Brazil but not for Mexico. An artificially introduced one standard deviation increase in nominal exchange rate results in a statistically significant increase in M1 in Argentina and Brazil but again not for Mexico. Based on the patterns of the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the magnitude of the coefficients, we conclude that currency substitution occurs to a greater extent in Argentina and Brazil than Mexico. This is reflective of the implementation of relatively more credible macroeconomic policies in Mexico after the December 1994 crisis. Thus from a policymaking perspective, it is important to consider that the greater the degree of currency substitution, the more sensitive a country's monetary aggregates are to sudden movements in exchange rates, productivity and interest rates. (C) 2003 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
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This study investigates the relationship between bank ownership structure, non-interest income and risk in an emerging market setting. Our analysis shows that the relationship between product diversification and bank risk is significantly influenced by asset size and ownership structure. In contrast to large banks, small banks are exposed to higher risk when the income share of non-traditional banking activities rise. We also find strong evidence of differences in risk exposure of banks to non-interest income after controlling for ownership structure. Private domestic and private foreign banks experience lower risk with higher non-interest income while the converse is true for public domestic banks. Furthermore, we show that the speed with which risk adjust to non-income activities is faster for domestic private banks than for foreign banks. These results could provide useful information to investors and regulators of banking institutions as they seek to reconcile the important issues of bank ownership structure, income diversification and size on the one hand with the level of risk exposure on the other hand. © 2016, Banking and Finance Review.
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In this paper, we examine the differences in information asymmetry and financing patterns and a generalized version of the trade-off theory across countries with different institutional environments. We find that firms in Civil law countries have higher information asymmetry, rely more on internally generated funds, and use more short-term debt to finance their financing deficit, relative to those in Common law countries. In both Civil law and Common law countries, factors suggested by the trade-off theory explain the financing deficit coefficient in the generalized version of the trade-off model. Overall, the generalized version of the trade-off theory provides a better explanation for the changes in capital structure relative to the pecking order theory, even in countries with higher information asymmetry.
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