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"During presidential elections a quadrennial debate emerges which, although it differs in the particulars, reflects the same structure in each reincarnation. Although the issue positions taken by the candidates vary over the years, their claim to qualification for the presidency follows a common pattern. Each candidate discusses his or her prior experience as preparation for one or more of the requirements of the office and then lays claim to the legacy of one of the great presidents who followed the same trajectory to the White House.Missing from this debate is a systematic analysis of how different job experiences prepared the population of all presidents for service. For each of the greats who followed a particular pathway to the presidents there is a failure who shared the pathway. In this book I combine the quantitative evaluation of presidential performance with mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses of professional qualifications. The recent C-SPAN surveys provide us with a nuanced measure of presidential performance by asking historians to rate the Presidents on ten constituent attributes of: Public Persuasion, Moral Authority, Relations with Congress, Performance within Context of Times, Crisis Leadership, International Relations, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Economic Management, Administrative Skills, and Pursued Equal Justice for All. The sub-score for 'Relations with Congress' measures how well the president performs as 'legislator-in-chief' so that I can see whether former legislators work better with congress. Similarly the measure of 'Administrative Skills' indicates whether experience as a governor leads to better performance as the national chief executive. The evaluation of 'Economic Management' looks at whether those presidents with business experience do a better job in dealing with the economy. C-SPAN's nuanced measure of presidential performance allows a more careful evaluation of how prior experience affects particular aspects of presidential greatness than was previously possible"--, "Presidential hopefuls frequently claim they are qualified because their job experience is the same as a great president. However they ignore the failed presidents who shared the same pathway. This book evaluates all the presidents systematically to determine how prior professional experience influences presidential performance"--
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This work examines expressions of personal hostility and animosity toward presidents―even beloved ones―throughout American history and their impact on policymaking, politics, and culture.• Investigates a unique form of expressions of hatred toward American presidents, focusing on the personal rather than the political• Covers every president from Washington to Trump• Includes coverage of personal attacks on First Families• Details how presidents and allies responded to these attacks
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This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.
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