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Agriculture ranks as one of the top contributors to global warming and nutrient pollution. Quantifying life cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production serves as a scientific foundation for forming effective remediation strategies. However, methods capable of accurately and efficiently calculating spatially explicit life cycle global warming (GW) and eutrophication (EU) impacts at the county scale over a geographic region are lacking. The objective of this study was to determine the most efficient and accurate model for estimating spatially explicit life cycle GW and EU impacts at the county scale, with corn production in the U.S.’s Midwest region as a case study. This study compared the predictive accuracies and efficiencies of five distinct supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms, testing various sample sizes and feature selections. The results indicated that the gradient boosting regression tree model built with approximately 4000 records of monthly weather features yielded the highest predictive accuracy with cross-validation (CV) values of 0.8 for the life cycle GW impacts. The gradient boosting regression tree model built with nearly 6000 records of monthly weather features showed the highest predictive accuracy with CV values of 0.87 for the life cycle EU impacts based on all modeling scenarios. Moreover, predictive accuracy was improved at the cost of simulation time. The gradient boosting regression tree model required the longest training time. ML algorithms demonstrated to be one million times faster than the traditional process-based model with high predictive accuracy. This indicates that ML can serve as an alternative surrogate of process-based models to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts, capturing large geographic areas and timeframes.
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Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a foundational method for quantitative assessment of sustainability. Increasing data availability and rapid development of machine learning (ML) approaches offer new opportunities to advance LCA. Here, we review current progress and knowledge gaps in applying ML techniques to support LCA, and identify future research directions for LCAs to better harness the power of ML. This review analyzes forty studies reporting quantitative assessment with a combination of LCA and ML methods. We found that ML approaches have been used for generating life cycle inventories, computing characterization factors, estimating life cycle impacts, and supporting life cycle interpretation. Most of the reviewed studies employed a single ML method, with artificial neural networks (ANNs) as the most frequently applied approach. Both supervised and unsupervised ML techniques were used in LCA studies. For studies using supervised ML, training datasets were derived from diverse sources, such as literature, lab experiments, existing databases, and model simulations. Over 70 % of these reviewed studies trained ML models with less than 1500 sample datasets. Although these reviewed studies showed that ML approaches help improve prediction accuracy, pattern discovery and computational efficiency, multiple areas deserve further research. First, continuous data collection and compilation is needed to support more reliable ML and LCA modeling. Second, future studies should report sufficient details regarding the selection criteria for ML models and present model uncertainty analysis. Third, incorporating deep learning models into LCA holds promise to further improve life cycle inventory and impact assessment. Finally, the complexity of current environmental challenges calls for interdisciplinary collaborative research to achieve deep integration of ML into LCA to support sustainable development.
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- Journal Article (2)
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- English (1)