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This study reports results on the ex ante predictability of stock returns using real-time stock market data in Vietnam, a frontier market, from June 2008 to June 2021. Countries classified as a frontier market are often known for currency manipulation, financial market illiquidity, and political instability. Despite the enormous risk usually posed by these inefficiencies, potential profits are large and achievable for many investors. This study provides evidence on existing a strategy to form out-of-sample long portfolios that generate statistically significant and positive mean monthly returns even in the presence of transaction costs. I also justify the magnitude of these returns by showing that they exceed those of VnIndex and MSCI Vietnam Index. The results reject the hypothesis that the stock prices in Vietnamese market follow random walks, thus oppose the stock market efficiency hypothesis. Evidence found in this study provides a better understanding of informational efficiency in a frontier equity market setting. Specifically, there are several implications on portfolio selection strategies, stock price patterns, and trading behavior bias related to Vietnamese stock market can be drawn from this study.
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Purpose This study aims to compare the impact of board characteristics on the performance of listed non-financial firms to the impact of board characteristics on the performance of listed financial firms (commercial banks) in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach The fixed and random effects models with generalized least square specifications are used in estimating regressions to correct for heteroscedasticity and serial correlation. Additionally, this study uses lagged models of the board variables to address the possibility of the presence of endogeneity and to generate robust estimates. Findings The empirical results show some similarities and differences on the impact of board characteristics on the performance of listed non-financial firms and banks. On similarities, for both non-financial firms and banks, board size is seen to have a significant non-linear impact on Tobin’s q. Also, the proportion of foreign board members shows a positively significant relationship with firm performance for both listed non-financial firms and banks. The effect of the proportion of board members with higher educational qualifications on firm performance appears to be negative and statistically significant for both sample of firms. On the other hand, the impact of board composition and board gender diversity on firm performance differs from listed banks and non-financial firms. Research limitations/implications The panel regressions for the listed banks were run on 63 observations because of the small sample size for the listed banks. Though enough for estimation purposes, inferences from results should be made with caution. Originality/value This paper, unlike most corporate governance – firm performance studies, focuses not only on listed non-financial firms but also on listed banks. From a multi-theoretical perspective, this paper provides a comparative analysis on the impact of board characteristics on financial performance of listed non-financial firms and banks.
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The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market has become an increasingly important vehicle for alternative investment for equity investors. While existing research examining the cross-section of REIT returns usually employs standard risk factors in the in-sample models, it can only show the ex-post performance of REIT portfolios. The goal of our paper is to examine the ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios (i.e., the ability of investors to earn abnormal returns in real time). We employ the out-of-sample methodology of Cooper, Gutierrez, and Marcum (2005), and show that ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios is rather weak. For about half of our 19-year sample over the period of 1999 to 2017, the portfolio performances of REITs chosen ex-ante do not beat the performances of the FTSE-NAREIT or the CRSP Equal-Weighted index. After adjusting for transaction costs, the REIT portfolios significantly further underperform their benchmarks. Overall, our findings suggest that the market is relatively efficient in the REIT sector, and it is difficult for investors to devise trading strategies that improve the ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios, based on standard risk factors.