Your search

On 26 November 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the US economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002 after a revision to the 2001 real gross domestic product showed negative growth rates for its first three quarters. A series of political and economic events in the years 2000-01 have increased the amount of uncertainty in the state of the economy, which in turn has resulted in the production of less reliable economic indicators and forecasts. This paper evaluates the performance of two very reliable methodologies for predicting a downturn in the US economy using composite leading economic indicators (CLI) for the years 2000-01. It explores the impact of the monetary policy on CLI and on the overall economy and shows how the gradualness and uncertainty of this impact on the overall economy have affected the forecasts of these methodologies. It suggests that the overexposure of the CLI to the monetary policy tools and a strong, but less effective, expansionary money policy have been the major factors in deteriorating the predictions of these methodologies. To improve these forecasts, it has explored the inclusion of the CLI diffusion index as a prior in the Bayesian methodology. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non-Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected. © 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tholeiitic rocks of the Ferrar Large Igneous Province (FLIP) occur in a linear belt from the Theron Mountains to Horn Bluff in the Transantarctic Mountains and extend into southeastern Australasia. The FLIP was emplaced during the initial stages of Gondwana break-up from a source suggested to be in the proto-Weddell Sea region. Magma transport from its source (Weddell triple junction) was controlled by an Early Jurassic zone of extension. The FLIP comprises the Dufek intrusion, Ferrar Dolerite sills and dykes (sheet intrusions), and extrusive rocks consisting of pyroclastic strata overlain by Kirkpatrick Basalt lavas. The Dufek intrusion occurs in deformed supracrustal rocks of the foldbelt along the paleo-Pacific Gondwana margin. A few sills were emplaced in basement rocks, but the majority of the sheet intrusions occur in flat-lying Devonian to Triassic Beacon strata. Only in the central Transantarctic Mountains (CTM) and south and north Victoria Land (SVL, NVL) are extrusive rocks preserved overlying Beacon strata. The greatest cumulative thicknesses of magmatic rocks (ca. 2 km) occur in areas where lavas are preserved (CTM and SVL). Sheet intrusions have complex relationships. Dyke swarms (sensu stricto) are unknown and dykes cutting basement rocks are uncommon. Nevertheless, these dykes, including a 30-m-wide dyke in SVL, suggest that some magmas locally migrated up through basement rocks. In CTM and NVL the outcrop belt has a width of about 160 km. Sills originally extended farther toward the plate margin but have been cut out by erosion and Cenozoic faulting, most clearly in CTM; geophysical data suggest extension under the East Antarctic ice sheet for at least 100 km. Although Early Jurassic extension is documented in CTM, major rift-bounding faults have not been observed. Models for magma emplacement include transport along the axis of the Transantarctic Mountains and off-axis transport from major rift-bounding faults. Contrasts in geochemistry between lavas of NVL (MgO=6-7%) and CTM (MgO=2-4%) and the presence of massive dolerite bodies (CTM, SVL) suggest discrete episodes and locations of magma emplacement, and that there was no long range interconnection along the mountain range in supracrustal rocks.

The encrustation of Paleozoic rhynchonelliform brachiopods has been studied for decades, but modern brachiopods have not received similar scrutiny. The discovery of abundant subtropical brachiopods from the Southeast Brazilian Bight provides an unprecedented opportunity to assess epibiont abundance, diversity, and encrustation patterns in modern brachiopod assemblages. Across the outer shelf, encrustation frequencies vary among taxa, from mean values of 0.45% for Platidia to 9.3% for Argyrotheca. Encrustation frequencies for Bouchardia increase from 1.6% on the outer shelf to 84% on the inner shelf. Larger valves are encrusted more frequently, and epibionts preferentially colonize valve interiors. Increased encrustation on the inner shelf may reflect the greater surface areg of larger hosts, longer exposure of dead shells, water-mass characteristics, sedimentation rates, productivity, or other factors that vary with depth. Inner-shelf brachiopods exhibit encrustation frequencies comparable to those reported for epifaunal bivalves. The epibiont fauna is dominated by bryozoans and serpulids, with minor roles played by spirorbids, bivalves, barnacles, foraminifera, algae, and other taxa. Epibiont abundance at each site is highly variable, but sites are similar in rank importance of epibiont taxa. A different suite of epibionts colonized Paleozoic brachiopods, but similar patterns of encrustation have been observed, including preferential settlement according to valve morphology. These results provide a baseline for evaluating the encrustation of modern bivalves and ancient brachiopods, and may elucidate the macroevolutionary history of epibionts and their relationship to their hosts. © 2004, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

The problem of characterizing the relationship between packet size and network delay has received little attention in the field. Research in that area has been limited to either simulation studies or empirical observations that are detached from analytic traffic modeling. From a queueing viewpoint, it is simple to show that these three variables are inter-related, which necessitates a more careful study. We present a traffic model of a router fed by ON/OFF-type sources with heavy-tailed burst sizes. The traffic model considered is consistent with the evidence that Web traffic is heavy-tailed. The analysis cases that are considered establish a quantitative characterization of the complex relationship among packet payload and header sizes, traffic burstiness, and router queueing delay. © 2004 IEEE.

This study investigated the degree to which clinic directors rated the influence of American Speech-Language-Hearing Association (ASHA) discharge criteria and organizational factors on client discharge in the university setting. Results found that university clinic directors regarded ASHA's client-centered criteria to more strongly influence client discharge practices than did organizational factors. In fact, organizational factors (e.e., fee structure, resources, scheduling, disorder characteristics) were revealed to have little to no influence on discharge practices. Results have implications for the pre-professional education of student clinicians in the university clinic and how student clinicians are oriented to discharge practices across a variety of clinical settings.

Twenty-five pediatricians responded to a confidential survey about their opinions on the relationship between otitis media and children's speech-language-hearing status. Results found that pediatricians did not necessarily agree that otitis media has an impact on speech-language-hearing development. Pediatricians reported that an early otitis media onset (birth to age 2) affects speech-language development, but they also reported that parents and daycare environments could mitigate any otitis media effect. Pediatricians reported a possible otitis media impact on hearing status, but they did not necessarily agree that an otitis media history required referral for audiological testing. Clinical implications are discussed for collaboration among pediatricians, speech-language pathologists, and audiologists. Learning outcomes: (1) The reader will become familiar with pediatricians' opinions about the impact of otitis media on speech-language development. (2) The reader will become familiar with strategies to support interdisciplinary collaboration between pediatricians, speech-language pathologists, and audiologists. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This study measured the receptive communication skills of 14 adults with significant intellectual disability living in community group homes in Connecticut. Group home staff members rated the 14 participants using it 14-item rating scale sensitive to the adult living situation. These individuals appeared to have relatively stronger skills for comprehension of single-step in-context directions and the ability to recognise that particular tangible objects represented certain daily routines. These individuals were relatively, weak in identifying,familiar people in photographs and common objects in magazines. Among these participants, persons with profound intellectual disability mere rated to hate lower receptive communication skills than persons with severe intellectual disability. Clinical implications are discussed for human service providers and education professionals.

This study utilized a rating scale and random sampling of Connecticut school speech—language pathologists about their preprofessional education and current knoWledge of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The participants had a minimal amount of preprofessional academic or clinical preparation in ASD, and no differences Were found in hoW speech—language pathologists Were trained over the past 30 years. School speech—language pathologists reported relatively stronger knoWledge of the general behavioral and communication characteristics associated With ASD and less knoWledge of educational assessment and intervention formats. Given the prevalence of schoolchildren With ASD, speech—language pathology graduate programs need to enhance their preprofessional curricula to provide school-based speech—language pathologists With specific training to meet the communication needs presented by children With ASD. © 2004, Sage Publications. All rights reserved.

The purpose of this study is to provide a microanalysis of differences in adaptive functioning seen between well-matched groups of school-aged children with autism and those diagnosed as having Pervasive Developmental Disorder-Not Otherwise Specified, all of whom functioned in the mild to moderate range of intellectual impairment. Findings indicate that the major area of difference between children with autism and those with Pervasive Developmental Disorder-Not Otherwise Specified, was expressive communication; specifically, the use of elaborations in syntax and morphology and in pragmatic use of language to convey and to seek information in discourse. Linear discriminant function analysis revealed that scores on just three of these expressive communication item sets correctly identified subjects in the two diagnostic categories with 80% overall accuracy. Implications of these findings for both diagnosis and intervention with children with Autism Spectrum Disorders will be discussed.

The structural properties of 1,1′-dibromoferrocene, [Fe(C 5H4Br)2, were investigated using single-crystal x-ray diffraction. It was found to crystallize in the non-centrosymmetric space group P21. Despite of the steric demand of the two bromine substituents, the two cyclopentaldienyl (Cp) rings were found to exhibit an eclipsed conformation in the solid state. The conformational arrangement found in compound seems not to be the result of general electronic preference within this class of compounds, but has to be attributed to crystal packing effects in the solid state.

The structure of p-anisolecarbonitrile, C8H7NO, was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 100 K. It crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P21/c with two crystallographically independent molecules in the asymmetric © 2004 International Union of Crystallography Printed in Great Britain - all rights reserved.

We collected prey remains from 25 Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus) territories across Arizona from 1977 to 1988 yielding 58 eyrie-years of data. Along with 793 individual birds (107 species and six additional genera), we found seven mammals and nine insects. In addition, two nestling peregrines were consumed. We found a larger dependence upon White-throated Swifts (Aeronautes saxatalis) and birds on migration in northern Arizona, while in southeastern and central Arizona average prey mass was greater and columbiforms formed the largest dietary component. In northern, central, and southeastern Arizona, 74, 66, and 56 avian prey taxa, respectively, were recorded. We used capture-recapture modeling to estimate totals of 111 ± 9.5, 113 ± 10.5, and 86 ± 7.9 (SE) avian taxa taken in these same three areas. These values are counterintuitive inasmuch as the southeast has the richest avifauna. For the entire study area, 156 ± 9.3 avian taxa were estimated to be taken by peregrines.

While scholars working in colonial and post-colonial North India have devoted a great deal of attention to language variation, they have largely ignored the discursive use of names for language varieties. In this article, I investigate the ways that speakers enter into dialogic relationships with distinct voices, in the rubric of Bakhtin, depending upon which names for language varieties they mention. I reflect upon conversations between residents of Banaras, a city of approximately two million in North India, in which names for language varieties cluster into three sets. Each set of language names invokes particular language ideologies constructed in India's colonial and post-colonial past. The first two sets-one comprised by “Hindi” and “English” and the other comprised by names for more local varieties-intersect official notions about the proper fit between language and its context of use. The third set does not. In order to account for the third set, in which speakers forego official, authoritative descriptions of languages, I note that interactional phenomena, in addition to ideological dimensions of language, are crucial in understanding the ways that people differently reflect on language varieties in practice. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A 4.5 Ma record of fluvial and lacustrine deposits is well exposed at Gona, in the Afar Depression of Ethiopia. We use isotopic values of pedogenic carbonate and fossil teeth to reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene environmental change at Gona. An increase in δ13C values of pedogenic carbonates since 4.5 Ma points to a shift from woodlands to grassy woodlands in the early Pliocene, -10.4 to -3.9‰ (VPDB), to more open but still mixed environments in the late Pleistocene, -3.0 to -1.4‰ (VPDB). This pattern is also seen in isotopic records elsewhere in East Africa. However, at 1.5 Ma the higher proportion of C4 grasses at Gona is largely a result of a local facies shift to more water-limited environments. The wide range of δ13C values of pedogenic carbonate within single stratigraphic levels indicates a mosaic of vegetation for all time intervals at Gona that depends on depositional environment. Elements of this mosaic are reflected in δ13C values of both modern plants and soil organic matter and Plio-Pleistocene soil carbonate, indicating higher amounts of C4 grasses with greater distance from a river channel in both the modern and ancient Awash River systems. δ18O values of pedogenic carbonates increase up-section from -11.9‰ in the early Pliocene to -6.4‰ (VPDB) in the late Pleistocene. The wide range of δ18O values in paleovertisol carbonates from all stratigraphic levels probably reflects short-term climate changes and periods of strong evaporation throughout the record. Based on the comparison between δ18O values of Plio-Pleistocene pedogenic carbonates and modern waters, we estimate that there has been a 6.5‰ increase in mean annual δ18O values of meteoric water since 4.5 Ma. δ18O values of pedogenic carbonate from other East African records indicate a similar shift. Increasing aridity and fluctuations in the timing and source of rainfall are likely responsible for the changes in δ18O values of East African pedogenic carbonates through the Plio-Pleistocene. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluvio-lacustrine sediments of the Hadar and Busidima Formations along the northern Awash River (Ethiopia) archive almost three million years (3.4 to <0.6 Ma) of human evolution, including the earliest documented record of stone toolmaking at 2.5-2.6 Ma. This paper brings together sedimentologic and isotopic evidence for the paleoenvironmental context of early hominids from both formations, but with particular emphasis on the setting for the early toolmakers. The pre-2.92 Ma record (Hadar Formation) is characterized by low-gradient fluvial, paludal, and lacustrine deposition in an undissected topography most analogous to reaches of the modern middle Awash River near Gewane. The Gona area experienced repeated deep dissection and aggradation by the Awash River, starting between 2.92 and ca. 2.7 Ma and continuing through the top of the record at <0.6 Ma (Busidima Formation). Each aggradational succession is 10-20 m in thickness and fines upward from well-rounded conglomerates at the base to capping paleosols at the top. During this period the ancestral Awash represented by these fining upward sequences was dominantly meandering and flowed northeast, as it does today. Smaller channels tributary to the axial Awash system are also extensively exposed in the Busidima Formation. Compared to the axial-system conglomerates, the tributary channels transported finer, less mature volcanic clasts mixed with abundant carbonate nodules reworked from adjacent badlands. Stone artifacts (Oldowan; 2.6-2.0 Ma) at the oldest archaeological sites are only associated with the axial Awash system, in the bedded silts or capping paleosols of the fining upward sequences. The implements were made from rounded cobbles from the channels, but manufacture and use of the tools was always away from the channel bars, on the nearby sandy banks and silt-dominated floodplains. Archaeological sites higher in the record (Acheulian; <1.7 Ma) occur in similar axial river contexts, as well as along tributary channels further removed from artifact raw material sources. Mature paleosols in the Hadar and Busidima Formations are mostly pale to darkbrown Vertisols typified by abundant clay slickensides, pseudo-anticlinal and vertical fracturing, and carbonate nodules. Such calcic Vertisols are common in the region today, demonstrating that the paleoclimate over the past 3.4 m.y. has been semi-arid and strongly seasonal. Carbon isotopic results from pedogenic carbonates in the Vertisols allow reconstruction of the proportion of C3 plants (trees and shrubs) to C4 plants (grasses) through time. The δ 13C results from the Hadar Formation prior to 2.9 Ma range from -9.3‰ to -4.1‰, indicating a dominantly forested environment but with locally substantial (average 34%) grasses on the Awash floodplain. The δ13C values from soil carbonate in the lower Busidima Formation (2.7-1.6 Ma) increase (-6.5‰ to -2.7‰) in floodplain paleosols, indicating ∼ 50% average grass cover. Vertisols of the upper Busidima Formation (< 1.6 Ma) formed on gently sloping alluvial fans adjacent to the Awash floodplain and display even more positive δ13C values, up to -1.8‰, showing that grassland dominated the margins of the active Awash floodplain. © 2004 Geological Society of America.