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This paper is a version of the seventh ECTJ/ERIC-IR Young Scholar Paper, an annual award initiated to stimulate writing by young professionals in the field of instructional technology. Preparation of the paper was supported by the ERIC Clearinghouse on Information Resources at Syracuse, NY. - Ed. © 1984 Association for Educational Communications and Technology.

A methodology is developed for combining mean value forecasts using not only all the important statistics related to the past performance and the dependence of the individual forecasts, but also a rank ordering of the individual forecasts representing the belief of a decision maker about the future performance of the forecasts. The maximum likelihood combination of the forecasts turns out to be a weighted linear combination of the individual forecasts, where the weights are a function of the rank order of the forecasts, correlation coefficients between the forecasts, and relative entropy information measures between the individual forecasts and the actual values. These weights are assessed once in the most general case and once in a special case where the forecasts are normally distributed. The sensitivity of the weights is also investigated. A sample application of this method for predicting U.S. hog prices is also presented.

This paper presents a methodology for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using Composite Leading Indicators. This methodology is based on classical statistical decision theory and uses information-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is flexible using as many historical data points as desired. This methodology is applied to producing probability forecasts of a downturn in U.S. economy in the 1970-1990 period. Four probability forecasts are produced using different amounts of information. The performance of these forecasts is evaluated using the actual downturn points and the scores measuring accuracy, calibration, and resolution. An indirect comparison of these forecasts with Diebold and Rudebusch's sequential probability recursion is also presented. It is shown that the performances of our best two models are statistically different from the performance of the three-consecutive-month decline model and are the same as the one for the best probit model. The probit model, however, is more conservative in its predictions than our two models.

Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is relatively sensitive to the presence of outliers in a data set. In this paper, a robust estimation method, least median of squares (LMS) is used to identify outliers in land value data. Once the outliers are identified, are the land value equations re-estimated. The results show that a few observations can have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients. Finally, the observations which were identified as outliers were examined in more detail. One cause of outliers is an omitted variable. In this case, a large fraction of the outliers were found to be observations with high development potential.

This paper examines the effect of a zoning change on the land market in McHenry County, Illinois. One question addressed is whether zoning `'follows the market.” It is found that, for agricultural land, zoning does tend to follow the market. In addition, the effect of land prices on land use is examined. The results here, however, are mixed. In the initial years after the zoning change, a high relative price of residential land increases the probability that a parcel will be zoned residential. However, several years later, a high relative price of residential land decreases the probability that a parcel is zoned residential. This result suggests that it may take some time for a zoning change to have a significant impact on the local land market.

Does the formation of a customs union reduce and eventually eliminate tariffs among member countries to provide mechanisms or regional institutions for social, economic and political development? The literature examined suggests that, although many problems of trade liberalization continue to occur, greater benefits could be obtained by reducing tariffs on a non‐discriminatory basis, or by removing protection from domestic enterprises altogether, and by importing domestic requirements of the products of displaced industries from outside at world market prices. The literature also provides a valid case for protecting certain activities in ECOWAS — particularly trade and industrial enterprises — either for the purpose of increasing income or the rate of economic growth, or in order to achieve certain non‐economic objectives. The implications of economic integration in these terms can best be examined within a broader theoretical framework of developmental theory of trade liberalization. Copyright © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

By 1965, Taiwan has changed from a labor surplus economy into a labor shortage economy. This article examines how rising demand for labor due lo rapid economic growth in Taiwan has been met since 1965. This article attempts to answer 1) Where did the labor supply come from? 2) Has all of the potential labor supply been tapped and exhausted? 3) Is it possible for labor shortage and unutilized labor reserve to occur simultaneously? The authors hope that this study will lead to a better understanding of the limitation of the free market mechanism and help identify the proper public policies to enhance labor utilization.

After surveying the evolution of the major methodologies in inflation hedging, this study presents a unique methodology that uses principal component factor analysis to separate the effects of variability in the real rate of return from the nominal rate of return. This approach allows the effects of both anticipated and unanticipated inflation on rates of return to be estimated more precisely. This study finds that art objects perform well in terms of average real rates of return and that the market, though not perfect, integrates anticipated inflation into the rates of return. However, unanticipated inflation is very often negatively related to the rates of return. Copyright © 1994, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved

This paper discusses a regulatory technique that consists of the use of a controlled chain reaction to influence social and economic processes. It claims that this method was employed by Hungarian control agencies to further centralize the farm sector in the 1970s. Section I of the paper presents three versions of this technique. Section II shows how the institutional structure of Hungarian agriculture made the application of this technique possible. (JEL P21).

This paper examines whether a more restrictive zoning ordinance actually reduces construction of new housing. This may seem at first to be a trivial issue, since why else would a zoning board make the ordinance more restrictive. However, it is possible for landowners to circumvent the zoning law. For example, they can subdivide their land before the zoning change occurs. In addition, they can bargain with the local zoning officials and offer side payments, also known as exactions, for the right to develop their land. This paper examines a famous case of agricultural downzoning in McHenry County, Illinois. It finds that although the number of building permits issued did not fall immediately, in the long run the number of permits issued by the county was significantly reduced. This suggests that developers were able to anticipate the zoning change and subdivide their land before it occurred. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

There have been several studies that have investigated the effect of zoning on housing prices. One hypothesis is that the restrictiveness of zoning laws will vary with the monopoly power of a town. The degree of monopoly power varies with the number of towns in the urban area. Urban areas with few zoning jurisdictions are likely to have higher housing prices than more fragmented urban areas. Previous research on this topic has shown mixed results. The results in this article suggest that towns with more monopoly power do tend to have significantly higher housing prices than more fragmented urban areas.

Application of forward coastal sediment transport models in situations involving large temporal and spatial scales or topographically complex environments can be highly problematic since the distribution of hydrodynamic parameters is rarely adequately known. Where rocky topography is present, flow patterns may be altered and sediments trapped by topographic barriers. A frequently employed approach to these problems is the application of the statistical technique known as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. One limitation of EOF analysis of grain size and mineralogical data is that EOF is a purely geometric technique which does not allow incorporation of a priori knowledge we may have regarding the physical environment. In fact, there is no guarantee that a meaningful physical interpretation of the results of an EOF analysis actually exists. This is not true of geophysical inverse theory, which is capable of incorporating diverse forms of information and is not limited to purely geometric manipulations of data. We have formulated an inverse theoretical approach to study sediment transport which we call STI, short for source-transport inversion. STI relaxes the nonphysical assumption of orthogonal endmembers and can handle many forms of a priori information. STI has been developed initially in the context of modeling the sediment supply and dispersal system of Monterey Bay, California. Using the geographical distribution of heavy mineralogy data, significant sources are identified and sediments traced from those sources along transport pathways. Model results are encouraging both in terms of goodness of fit between model and data and in terms of the agreement of model results with the sediment sourcing and dispersal patterns inferred in previous studies. Model results indicate that beach sediments are primarily derived from the open coast north of the bay, that a littoral cell boundary exists in the center of the bay at Moss Landing, and that beach deposits produced by paleolittoral drift during a sea level low stand lie along the 100-m isobath. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.